Monday, April 29, 2013

New Projection Update Puts Things In Perspective

A number of fixes, improvements and tweaks to our projection model have brought us more in line with other pundits. However our projection has the perhaps unique distinction of predicting that Christy Clark will be on the unemployment line in May (well, the one for high-profile politicians, at least) if the trend continues.

Our latest update, using the numbers from the latest Abacus poll, puts the Liberals on 28 and the BC NDP at 56 seats, which gives them a majority, despite a marginal "loss" of seats. Given the controversies that have led to BC Conservative candidates stepping down, it's not too surprising that the BC Tories are shut out. The lone "other" party to remain in the fray is Vicki Huntington in Delta South, who is projected to hold her seat (for now).

Premier Christy Clark's seat, marked in red on the seat-by-seat breakdown page, is a close one, but the model is giving Vancouver-Point Grey to the NDP challenger right now. David Eby may soon be brushing up on his MLA "Letter Commemorating Your Event"-writing skills. BC NDP leader Adrian Dix's seat of Vancouver-Kingsway, meanwhile, is a solid hold for him, and John Cummins fails to break through in Langley.

Other hot ridings right now include: Chilliwack, Kamloops-South Thompson, Kootenay East, North Vancouver-Lonsdale, Parksville-Qualicum, Penticton, Prince George-Mackenzie, Prince George-Valemount, Shuswap, Surrey-Panorama, and Vernon-Monashee. It's neck and neck in these places.

Interesting Political News

Our partners at have recently finished up a full geo-demographic segmentation of all of BC's ridings, and will be making that available to the paying public. They have kindly offered to share some previews of what their data looks like, so stay tuned for that.

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